February 17, 2004

posted by Scott @ 1:01 PM
Money and Statistics:

ArchPundit sees Hull's formula for votes as potentially effective when coupled with his campaign coffers. If he can efficiently contact likely supporters and get them to the polls that could be the difference in the primary, especially in a crowded field:

"The larger problem is that Hull hasn't even hit his big media buy yet and Dan Hynes is in no shape to counter that effort. He doesn't have adequate funds. Negative ads are a problem because Hynes would have to take ownership of the ads according to the new FEC regulations and say he paid for the ad (Miller pointed this out too). And Hynes agreed to Dick Durbin's no negative ads against other Democrats pledge.

In fact, if Hynes were to attack he would probably damage Hull to some degree to the benefit of Barack Obama who can stay above the fray and simply look to turnout black and liberal votes while the other two go after one another. In such a scenario, Joyce Washington may play a spoiler to Obama even with a small number of votes."

Yikes, that's a depressing scenario, but of course it could occur. My hope is that Hynes and Obama launch their ads soon, and Illinois voters awake from their pre-election slumber and start to get cynical about a guy trying to buy their vote. I think you can also add to ArchPundit's scenario the fact that the presidential primary will all but be wrapped up by March 16th. At least with Dean out of contention, far left liberals may not turn out in large numbers. That would hurt Obama primarily.

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