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March 14, 2004

posted by Scott @ 10:13 AM
The Calm Before the Storm
Sorry for the light posting in the past few days, but I'll be on top of things until Tuesday for sure. People have been saying this all along, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the race will come down to turnout and organization. Though Obama has shown a good size lead in most of the polls that have come out in recent days, it's now a race against that margin and the organization that Hynes will unleash. Will the machine fully go to bat for Hynes in the City, downstate? Will Hull erode that traditional Democratic base enough to make a difference? What role will Obama's labor support play in diluting Hynes' organizational power? And will turnout be low enough to freeze Obama's momentum in the polls? These all seem to be the questions that will determine the race on Tuesday.
Regarding the question about Obama's union support my girlfriend, who is a CPS teacher, has said that their union hasn't done squat thus far to organize teachers on election day. That could change in the next few days, but I wonder if this is indicative of the relative weakness of that arm of OBama's support. Any reports of downstate teachers organizing? And what's the word about service workers?

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