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March 04, 2004

posted by Scott @ 3:34 PM
The Trib Sees Low Voter Turn Out As an Advantage for Hynes:

"But the problems for Hull, who recently led in several polls for the Democratic nomination, have helped rival Dan Hynes. And while Hynes may be a bit short on campaign cash compared to his rivals, he was also assisted this week by the certainty there won't be a contested Democratic presidential primary in Illinois.

As the son of a powerful ward committeeman, Hynes has a field operation of political foot soldiers far beyond the scope of his opponents, something that could greatly help him if voter turnout is low. And that's more likely now that U.S. Sen. John Kerry has all but sealed the Democratic presidential nomination.

Although Hynes placed third of seven candidates in the most recent Tribune/WGN-Ch. 9 poll, the Illinois comptroller also has run a statewide contest before, another key advantage.”

Read the whole thing here.

Certainly, Hynes has the organizational advantage, but it remains to be seen whether manufacturing votes at the precinct level will be enough to put him over the top. Organization is great, but many of those who will be on the phones and knocking on doors for Hynes on election day aren’t necessarily actually pulling for him. They’ll mostly be either state/city workers or others whose livelihood is somehow tied to the local politicians who have endorsed Hynes. I haven’t been contacted by Hynes’ people yet, but I did get a phone message from a Hull worker. The woman sounded like she was doing her nails and watching t.v. while calling. All types of campaign support are not the same, and if Hynes has a legion of bored supporters his organizational advantage could be blunted. Also in terms of signage, as I drive around the city I don’t see all that much of Hynes--some but nothing overwhelming. Mostly it’s Hull or Obama.

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