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May 23, 2004

EuroPolis: Hungary a piece of the missile defense puzzle? 

posted by Paul Smith @ 4:06 AM
Several sources are reporting that Hungary has been approached by Americans looking to have the Central European nation host Patriot missile batteries as part of a missile defense shield. The Hungarian government is vehemently denying this, however:
Népszabadság [a left-leaning publication] claimed US defense analysts and senior officials from Hungary's Foreign Ministry and the PMO engaged in high-level talks on deploying certain elements of US-manufactured Patriot PAC-3 missile batteries and/or radar stations in Hungary.

Adding to the speculation, specialist publication Jane's Defense Weekly has reported that several US allies in this region have been approached on the subject, which is reportedly being initiated in a bid to guard against the potential of ballistic missiles being launched by states listed as being among the "Axis of Evil". […]

Hungarian defense analysts, who spoke to Népszabadság "on condition of anonymity", said that Hungary's geographical location made it an ideal candidate for such missiles which could potentially be used to destroy hostile missiles from Iran or North Korea while they are still in the upper layers of the atmosphere. --Budapest Sun
As I noted before, the Bush team is quietly going about its business abroad putting the pieces of the missile defense folly in place, and they can more or less hide in plain sight with Iraq absolutely (and of course justifiably) dominating the American press. Since most domestic U.S. polling excludes questions of missile defense, it's hard to know what Americans think of it, but in my humble opinion I would venture to say that if they knew it was proceeding apace without debate, most people would be rather skeptical of yet another '80s retread.

EuroPolis: Hungarians want soldiers out of Iraq 

posted by Paul Smith @ 3:52 AM
In Budapest for a brief stop (had I planned this trip a bit more efficiently, I'd be spending a much longer time here: a beautiful, beautiful city) … from the English-language Budapest Sun:
What started off as broad political support for the Hungarian deployment in Iraq has seemingly developed into a maelstrom of mixed political and public opinion.

The Hungarian Gallup Institute conducted a poll at the end of April which showed nearly 77% of Hungarians were in favor of calling back the soldiers serving in Iraq. A mere 15% felt that the Hungarian contingent should continue its efforts.

The poll was conducted before reports on the torture of Iraqi prisoners broke in the world media.
The Hungarian political parties are mostly divided on the issue of whether to maintain a troop presence in Iraq, with the ruling Socialist party stating that the abuse at Abu Ghraib should not affect the decision. But with opposition parties using falling support for the mission to their political benefit, it will become increasingly difficult for the Socialists to remain at least nominally committed.
The Hungarian soldiers' mandate expires at the end of the year. Both the parliamentary parties and the government itself were prepared to take part in four-party talks in order to reach a "careful, balanced consensus", the leaders said. There are currently 290 Hungarian transport troops serving in Iraq.

May 22, 2004

EuroPolis: Croatia, final thoughts 

posted by Paul Smith @ 3:10 AM
Croatia has a promising future, and superficially seems prosperous (cf. consumer prices relatively in line with what you'd find in the West, a booming tourist industry). But it has a structural jobs problem, with unemployment hovering around 20%. Mostly this stems from a government that has been stuck between the old economic patterns of its Yugoslav past and the demands for "reform" that are short-hand for privatization and fiscal austerity for the benefit of foreign investment. This has by now become a familiar story, but it does seem even to this liberal observer that the unions and their supporters, who are justifiably using their strength to block measures that would rob them of their power and safety nets, will need to reform themselves in order to survive. The nation cannot truly prosper on tourist dollars alone. With the European Union swallowing up its neighbors all around -- Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic -- Croatia can ill-afford to be stuck with one foot in the old ways if it wants both the growth that the country seems primed to enjoy and a smooth transition to EU membership. Participation in history's largest democratic market of nations seems unambiguously a positive development for a country with the courage to see a free and democratic future and fight off the Serbs to make it happen.

May 21, 2004

Ryan aide shadows Obama at every step 

posted by Paul Smith @ 9:35 AM
I find this embarrassing for the Ryan campaign
Like most elected officials in Springfield, Obama is out in the open as he mixes with the public and wades through crowds on his way to and from legislative hearings, rallies and debates in the House and Senate chambers. Right behind him virtually every moment is Justin Warfel, the 24-year-old Ryan staffer who is documenting virtually every move Obama makes.

"The young man who has been following me down here is literally a foot away," Obama said. "So I can't have a call. If I'm calling my wife on the phone, he's got a tape recorder in my face."

It is common for political candidates to dispatch aides to monitor campaign activities of opponents. Many also make use of researchers who pore over the private lives and public records of rivals, looking for flaws to exploit.

But Warfel's up-close-and-personal shadowing of Obama appears to step it up a notch.

An aide to Obama said Warfel went so far Thursday as to interrupt Obama while he was talking to constituents and "heckle him a little bit."
Ostensibly, the Ryan campaign is saying that they're only monitoring Barack to make sure he has a "consistent" message, but what they're actually doing is just gotcha politics, or rather trying to create a gotcha moment, upset or provoke the Senator, try to catch him in a slip and yell "Aha!" This is just degrading behavior, unworthly of a campaign for the nation's highest deliberative body. The Ryan campaign clearly knows what trouble it's in, desparately hoping for the notoriously cool-and-collected Obama to make a mistake, in effect acknowledging that they can't go head-to-head on the issues and character. And so what if he does slip? What does that prove? How are you going to spin it, Ryan folks? Will you be proud of yourselves then? In a hard, months-long race, anybody is going to display moments of human frailty. Then again, perhaps Barack should get used to this, as a political celebrity there are bound to be the fair share of paparazzi and gawkers.

May 20, 2004

EuroPolis: Croatia is the new black 

posted by Paul Smith @ 2:23 PM
Croatia is unique in that it appears to be the Balkan country with the most "going for it" in purely Western benchmarks. The government is a parliamentary democracy as of 1999. It has been an active participant in the War Crimes Tribunal, helping to extradite Serbs accused of war crimes. It is eager to join the European Union, and has taken preliminary steps towards this end, including signing a stablization pact with the EU. But really what sets it apart is that Westerners just really want to tour an exciting new place, and they don't have to worry about antipersonnel mines and ethnic unrest. It has a thriving tourist industry, accounting for nearly 1/4 of GDP. Zagreb, while not yet a world-class mid-sized metropolis like Geneva or Prague, is very cosmopolitan, has excellent architecture and energetic feel. The interior countryside is lush and rolling and features fine wine-making. ("Croatia is the new Tuscany.") One town I passed through seemed built entirely on about a dozen or so waterfalls, a remarkable sight. Dubrovnik, where I sit now, is a stunning jewel of a coastal resort town, jutting out into the clear blue waters of the Adriatic. There's no reason to believe the Dalmatian coast (yes, there are Dalmatian dogs here) won't become another Riveria or Cinque Terra. Croatians are good-natured and friendly. So what's not to like? Well, it's not exactly a well-kept secret, as evidenced by the throngs of cruise ship evacuees I pushed through on my walk along the city walls. So it may already be "too late" for those seeking an unspoilt, virgin new land. But who cares about all that? That's an impossibility any longer. It's still a beautiful and beguiling country. With all due respect to Walker Percy, I didn't come here to try to transcend the immanence of my Western self (though I have with varying degrees of unconcious and intent made an effort to blend in as a native, with my Slavic good-looks and Euro-trash/hipster dress :) -- I just wanted a vacation.

Jon Stewart's commencement address to William & Mary 

posted by Paul Smith @ 2:23 PM
Him funny!
And the real world is not a restoration. If you see people in the real world making bricks out of straw and water, those people are not colonial re-enactors—they are poor. Help them.

Obama Blog: It's about time 

posted by Paul Smith @ 4:31 AM
Even in Croatia you can't avoid the exciting world of Illinois politics. Glad to see the Obama team has finally brought their campaign into the 21st century with the new blog. It even garnered a nice mention on the ridiculously popular TPM. Congrats to all who made it happen.

May 17, 2004

Stay the course... 

posted by Paul Smith @ 8:44 AM
A great political cartoon that would make a great campaign ad, Mr. Kerry.

May 16, 2004

EuroPolis: Negroponte for VP 

posted by Paul Smith @ 1:52 PM
Seen on a t-shirt in a haute couture store window in Zagreb:
Ollie North for President
I'm at a loss to decipher the levels of irony here. Croats speak a lot of English, which would seem to rule out fetishization of the words, like what happens in Japan to American phrases. Who knows, maybe they just like the guy!

May 15, 2004

EuroPolis: Better living through mobile 

posted by Paul Smith @ 10:53 AM
T-Mobile's slogan in the States, "Get More," is rather contentless compared to their English-language slogan here in Vienna:
"For a better world for you"

EuroPolis: Not With Me! 

posted by Paul Smith @ 10:31 AM
The first thing that popped out from the background noise in Vienna were these political posters of a beaming, pleasant-seeming blonde man; they're all up and down the major straßes. The guy's name is Dr. Hans Kronberger, and he's the Freedom Party candidate for Austrian president in the upcoming June 13 election. What's unsettling about the posters are the three rotating messages they feature, including:
Turkei in die EU? Mit mir nicht! (Turkey in the E.U.? Not with me!)
Now, it's not surprising to see this sort of not-so-thinly-veiled xenophobia, especially given this country's far and recent pasts. It's just a bit unsettling to see it so nonchantly plastered all over a major cosmopolitan city. (I'll just briefly mention posters from another candidate that feature what I believe to be a Turkish man cartoonishly rendered with fangs, the obvious implication being that immigrants are vampires on the society, and this is from the Green Party candidate! Does anyone know if I'm missing the point on these?)

EuroPolis 

posted by Paul Smith @ 10:23 AM
I'm in Eastern Europe for two weeks -- Croatia, Hungary and Poland -- and I'll be posting my impressions of the local politics and curiosities. I'm starting this trip with a brief stay in Vienna, of which I'll have more on in a moment.

May 13, 2004

Obama one of the Dean Dozen 

posted by Paul Smith @ 12:19 PM
Howard Dean's new organization, Democracy for America, has come out with a list of 12 candidates it will endorse in upcoming elections. The list is comprised of candidates the organization feels "represent the spirit of grassroots democracy." More endorsements are forthcoming, including incumbents, which were excluded from this initial list.

Barack Obama made the cut:
The Dean Dozen

Barack Obama for United States Senate from Illinois. In the race to regain control of the U.S. Senate, Democrats have few better chances to pick up a seat than in Illinois. DFA volunteers all over Illinois helped Obama win his primary, now it's time to help him win the general. Stay tuned: I will be on the trail with Barack soon.
That last line from Gov. Dean himself. Interesting. Word has it that Obama campaign manager Jim Cauley has met with former Dean campaign guru Joe Trippi and other foot soldiers from the Dean experiment recently, who are eager to use Barack's campaign to prove that the Dean thing wasn't just about Dean, i.e., the methods -- Internet-based communications, community building, and fundraisings -- can translate to other full-throated, progressive Democratic candidates.

May 11, 2004

Obama leads on all fronts (except GOP, of course) 

posted by Paul Smith @ 11:30 AM
I'm not seeing a whole lot of polling data on this race yet, but according to the Wilson Research Strategies group, Obama maintains a nice lead:
Obama has 16 point lead in Illinois Senate Contest

Obama [leads] Republican Jack Ryan by a healthy margin 44% to 28%, with other candidates combining for less than 5% and 18% still undecided. […]

"Clearly, if Ryan has any hope of making this a competitive race he must do two things, first continue to grow his lead with Republicans and find a way to communicate with Independents," Adams said. "With 33% of those surveyed self describing as independents, the Independent vote will play a crucial part of any winning coalition and right now Obama is doing a better job of winning their trust."
Undecideds are a higher percentage than the margin Obama holds, but they'd all have to break to Ryan. That doesn't seem too likely considering:
Obama has a commanding lead among Independent voters leading 44% to 15% among those self described as being registered Independent. Obama also leads Ryan among men 41% to 31% and women 46% to 24%.
The race will certainly tighten, and Obama's campaign will try to downplay the significance of polls like these, but from where things stand, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Ryan pulls this one out.

May 02, 2004

Michael Ignatieff in the Times magazine 

posted by Paul Smith @ 9:25 PM
One of the few bright spots of public discourse in the run-up to war last year was an appearance on Charlie Rose by Michael Ignatieff and Jonathan Schell, a thoughtful debate on the merits of the conflict (Ignatieff pro, Schell con) argued respectfully and without a trace of rancor. As a strong partisan with my heels dug in against the war, Ignatieff wasn't going to change my mind, but I came away for the first time acknowledging there was an intelligent framework to be made in its favor (instead of just a hodge-podge of seemingly unrelated rationales that felt like cover for ulterior motives), or at least that there was a proponent whom I could respect.

Ignatieff displays his intellectual honesty and clarity again in a piece in today's Times Sunday Magazine, entitled Lesser Evils: What it will cost us to succeed in the war on terror. I don't necessarily agree with all of his premises or conclusions -- his proposed solution to the question of the necessity of torture strikes me as a somewhat cynical condescension to the rule of law -- but he proves himself a worthy thinker by provoking and reasoning through a number of difficult and disturbing issues.

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